Economic Slowdown: The Table is Set for Rate Cuts in 2024

Latest News Kim Stenberg 30 Nov

Q3 GDP Weaker Than Expected Paving the Way for Future Rate Cuts

The Canadian economy weakened far more than expected in the third quarter, down 1.1% annually. However, the Q2 figures were revised up significantly from a 0.2% decline to a rise of 1.4%. Such are the vagaries of economic data. The Canadian economy is contracting despite the positive impetus of rapid population growth. Household consumer spending flatlined, and the savings rate rose, confirming that the central bank’s aggressive interest-rate hikes are doing their job to slow economic activity.

Statistics Canada also released preliminary data suggesting that GDP grew 0.2% in October, boosted by residential construction and increased oil and gas extraction and retail trade, after the better-than-expected 0.1% expansion in September.

The economic contraction was broadly based. Household spending hasn’t been this weak since 2009, except during the pandemic lockdowns. In addition, business investment was particularly feeble, down 14.4% for business equipment and -7.7% for nonresidential construction. Exports also declined 5.1% over the same period.  Investment in residential construction rose 8.3% annualized, the first increase since the beginning of 2022.

Job vacancy data, also released today, posted another decline, confirming that the economy has weakened and excess demand has been eliminated. On a per capita basis, Canada’s economy has contracted for the second consecutive quarter.

Tomorrow, Statistics Canada will release the labour market report for November.

Bottom Line

Today’s release is welcome news for the Bank of Canada. Tiff Macklem said last week that the Bank’s interest rate hikes were doing their job to return inflation to its 2% target. The Governing Council meets once again on December 6th. We expect a more dovish press release suggesting that the policy rate has likely peaked. Market-driven interest rates have fallen sharply since early October, taking fixed mortgage rates down significantly (see chart below).

Traders in overnight swaps are betting the Bank of Canada will loosen monetary policy as early as April 2024, little changed from before the release. I expect that the Bank of Canada will gradually cut interest rates beginning in the second quarter of next year, taking the overnight rate down 200 basis points to 3.0% by year’s end.

 

Dr. Sherry Cooper  |  Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres

Avoid Costly Mistakes When Building a New Home

General Kim Stenberg 28 Nov

Building a new home is a super exciting endeavor as you opt to create the perfect space for you and your family. However, building a home is not without its costs and potential surprises… to mitigate bumps on your homebuilding journey and avoid costly mistakes, consider the following tips:

Set a Realistic Budget

When building your own home, it is vital to be realistic about your budget and what you can afford. Making a list of wants versus needs can be a good way to determine what is required, and where you can spend extra money should your budget allow for it. When constructing your budget, don’t forget to include construction costs from materials to labour, as well as permits, inspections, landscaping and unforeseen contingencies. The contingency fund should be approximately 10-15% of your budget put aside to cover unforeseen issues or changes.

Hire Reputable Individuals

From your architect and your contractor to your landscaper and inspector, it is vital to have the right people in the right positions. This will ensure that you not only get the best advice, but experienced individuals will also help to steer you through the process and mitigate potential issues. Be sure to do your research, ask for references and ensure the individual(s) you hire are licensed and insured.

While you’re researching individuals, it can also be a good idea to get multiple quotes. While you may have a contractor you like, reaching out to other individuals can help ensure you’re getting the best rate.

Review Contracts Carefully

Read and understand all contracts and agreements thoroughly between your contractor and yourself, your designer, your home inspector, etc. Ensure that everything is in writing and that you and your builder are on the same page regarding expectations, timelines, and costs.

Make and Follow Your Plan

Once you have your budget and the right people on the project, it is time to make a plan. You must work with an architect or designer to ensure that your new home aligns with your needs, lifestyle and budget. This should also include future plans – do you want to have children? Plan on adopting a pet or two? Possibly need space for an older family member in a few years? Getting this right from the beginning will help to avoid potential changes to the plan down the line, which will reduce expansions to cost and timelines.

Choose Your Materials Carefully

Choosing to invest in energy-efficient features and materials can help you to reduce long-term utility costs. While initially these installations may be more costly, they will work to save you money in the long run. Whenever possible, make sure these materials are also as durable as possible to ensure longevity and low maintenance requirements.

Secure the Necessary Permits

Ensure that you obtain all required permits and approvals before starting construction. One of the most important reasons to do this is to ensure that the work being done is safe, but having permits and inspections is also vital to ensure you can get insurance on your new build. Non-permitted renovations or build additions, changes, etc. can result in trouble securing insurance, on top of fines and other potentially costly issues.

Invest in Inspections

Having inspections done throughout the process of building your home can save you issues down the line by ensuring that all the installations are done correctly and safely and that your house meets the proper codes for electrical, plumbing, etc.

By taking proper steps and being proactive throughout the home-building process, you can minimize the risk of costly mistakes and ensure that your new home meets your expectations while staying within your budget.

 

Credit: DLC Marketing Team

Canadian Inflation Fell to 3.1% (y/y) in October, Ensuring the Bank of Canada Holds Rates Steady

Latest News Kim Stenberg 23 Nov

GOOD NEWS on the Inflation Front Suggests Policy Rates Have Peaked

Today’s inflation report showed a continued improvement, mainly due to falling year-over-year (y/y) gasoline prices. The October Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.1% y/y, down from the 3.8% rise in September. There were no surprises here, so markets moved little on the news. Excluding gasoline, the CPI rose 3.6% in October, compared to 3.7% the month before.

The most significant contributors to inflation remain mortgage interest costs, food purchased at stores, and rent.
Canadians continued to feel the impact of rising rent prices, which grew faster (y/y) in October (+8.2%) than in September (+7.3%). The national increase reflected acceleration across most provinces. The most significant increases in rent prices were seen in Nova Scotia (+14.6%), Alberta (+9.9%), British Columbia (+9.1%) and Quebec (+9.1%).
Property taxes and other special charges, priced annually in October, rose 4.9% yearly, compared with a 3.6% increase in October 2022. The national increase in October 2023 was the largest since October 1992, with homeowners paying more in all but one province, as municipalities required larger budgets to cover rising costs. Property taxes in Manitoba (-0.3%) declined for the third consecutive year, mainly due to reduced provincial education tax.

While goods prices decelerated by -1.6% as prices at the pump fell, prices for services rose 4.6% last month, primarily driven by higher prices for travel tours, rent and property taxes.

While grocery prices remained elevated, they also continued their trend of slower year-over-year growth, with a 5.4% increase in October following a 5.8% gain in September. While deceleration continued to be broad-based, fresh vegetables (+5.0%) contributed the most to the slowdown.

Excluding food and energy, inflation fell to 2.7% in October, down a tick from the September reading. Two other inflation measures closely tracked by the Bank of Canada–the so-called trim and median core rates–also eased, averaging 3.6% from an upwardly revised 3.8% a month earlier.

Bottom Line

According to Bloomberg calculations, another critical measure, a three-month moving average of underlying price pressures, fell to an annualized pace of 2.96% from 3.67% a month earlier. It’s an important metric because Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem has said policymakers are tracking it closely to understand inflation trends.

Today’s news shows that tighter monetary policy is working to bring down the inflation rate. In its Monetary Policy Report last month, the Bank of Canada expected the CPI to average 3.5% through mid-2024. Cutting its economic forecast, the Bank forecasted it would hit its 2% inflation target in the second half of 2025.

Given today’s data and the likely significant slowdown in Q3 GDP growth, released on November 30, and the Labour Force Survey for November the following day, policy rates have peaked. Governor Tiff Macklem will give a speech on the cost of high inflation in New Brunswick tomorrow, and the subsequent decision date for the Governing Council is December 6th. The Bank’s inflation-chopping rhetoric may be relatively hawkish, but the expectation of rate cuts could spur the spring housing market.

The economists at BMO have pointed out that “three provinces now have an inflation rate below 2%, while only three are above 3%, so much of the country is already seeing serious signs of stabilization. (Unfortunately, the two largest provinces have the fastest inflation rates—Quebec at 4.2% and Ontario at 3.3%).” There is no need for the Bank to raise rates again, and they could begin to cut interest rates in the second quarter of next year.

 

Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres