Canadian Federal Budget 2024: Higher Deficits, Higher Government Spending, and Higher Taxes for the Wealthy

Federal Budget Targets Rich Canadians for New Spending

The budget focuses on helping Millennial and Gen Z voters experiencing rising housing costs and other inflationary pressures. The government has set fiscal anchors, such as keeping the deficit below 1% of GDP starting in 2027.

The Canadian federal government released its 2023 budget over a year ago, promising to conduct a strategic spending review to find $15.4 billion in savings. The savings were supposed to achieve fiscal credibility by offsetting the $43 billion in new government spending. However, nearly a year after its announcement, the spending review found only $9 billion in savings, while the government piles on new spending measures in this year’s budget.

The fiscal path is mostly the same as in the 2023 Fall Economic Statement, but only after revenue gains from a resilient economy and further tax increases triggered even bigger spending initiatives.

Government spending is expected to be $480 billion in the next fiscal year, including $54 billion in payments on the country’s debt.

Finance Minister Freeland also announced a soak-the-rich tax scheme, levelling higher taxes on capital gains for people who make more than $250,000 selling stock or property other than a person’s primary residence.

Currently, 50% of capital gains profits are taxed, compared to 100% of a person’s employment income. That will remain the case for the first $250,000 of capital gains income, but it will rise to 66.6% on income above that level. So, the proposal is to reduce the tax-exempt amount to one-third for capital gains exceeding $250,000.

The lower exemption would also apply to businesses for all capital gains, not just those over $250,000. The additional capital gains taxes are expected to rake $19.4 billion into the government’s coffers over the next five years, which is no small measure. This will reduce business capital spending, already at rock-bottom lows, rendering the Canadian productivity problem even more egregious. Higher capital gains taxes also disincentivize investment in residential rental real estate.

The FY24/25 budget deficit is estimated at $39.8 billion (1.3% of GDP), with the numbers massaged just enough to meet the various ‘fiscal guideposts’. Any path to a balanced budget continues to be absent.

Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem has said provincial government spending is already making it harder to lower inflation. Running federal deficits — on top of large provincial deficits in Quebec, Ontario and British Columbia — is irresponsible. The government had previously set fiscal anchors, like keeping the deficit below 1% of GDP starting in 2027.

Philip Cross of the National Post writes, ”deficit spending when inflation is above target violates the 1991 accord between the Government of Canada and the Bank of Canada, which “jointly set forth targets for reducing inflation” and requires both parties to collaborate to achieve that goal.”

Cumulatively, the total deficit between FY23/24 and FY28/29 is now running $10 billion larger than in the Fall Economic Statement.

The Housing Plan

The housing measures were pre-announced, and the market impact should be minimal. However, the higher capital gains inclusion rate will impact those planning to sell valuable properties with much lower cost bases. It will change the economics of real estate investment in rental properties, an area that needs to be more generously funded.

Some Other Housing Measures:

Allowing 30-year mortgage amortizations for first-time home buyers purchasing new builds. This measure zeroes in on a small subset of the market. In general, though, it stokes excess demand and ultimately does little to improve affordability once prices adjust. Also, limits on the size of insured mortgages mitigate its impact in our most expensive cities. Pre-construction sales usually require a 20% down payment, which limits the use of insured mortgages, which account for only 15% of mortgage originations.

Increase the RRSP Home Buyers’ Plan limit from $35,000 to $60,000 and extend the three-year payback period.

Create a renters’ bills of rights and tenant protection fund. Some details here are curious, such as a national standard lease agreement (which is provincial jurisdiction). At any rate, the deck is stacked against landlords from bringing more quality rental supply to market—think taxes.

Accelerated capital cost allowances on the construction of new purpose-built rentals and removal of the HST on the construction of student rentals.

Increase the annual Canada Mortgage bond limit to $60 billion from $40 billion.

Top up the Housing Accelerator Fund to incentivize the removal of zoning barriers and tie transit funding to densification along transit corridors.

Bottom Line

This is a pre-election ‘tax and spend’ budget, which will do little to address the problems it claims to solve. It exacerbates other concerns, including insufficient business capital spending, low productivity growth, and insufficient investment in rental real estate.

Slowing the growth in nonpermanent immigration will, in time, do more to address the housing shortage than any of these measures.

Dr. Sherry Cooper | Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres

Recent Signs Show Housing Activity Will Strengthen Meaningfully in April

Ho Hum Housing Data in March Provides Hints of Coming Strength in Spring

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) announced today that national home sales for March were roughly flat, while new listings fell and prices stagnated. CREA analysts are confident that recent activity will harken stronger housing markets for the rest of this year.

There is significant pent-up demand for housing owing to rapid population growth and first-time homebuyers’ fears that prices will rise sharply once the Bank of Canada cuts interest rates. Moreover, Ottawa has been handing out goodies for first-time buyers–leaking what’s to come in the April 16 federal budget. The Finance Minister has already announced the resumption of 30-year amortization on insured mortgages for first-time buyers of new construction. While this is less than meets the eye, in that pre-sales typically require a 20% deposit, the homebuilders’ association is pretty excited.

In addition, Ottawa has eased restrictions on the RRSP Home Buyers’ Plan, allowing F-T buyers to withdraw $60,000–up from $ 35,000 (never mind that the $35K ceiling is hardly ever broached)–with 5 years until repayments must begin, up from two years.

Ottawa is also providing assistance to at-risk homeowners, telling lenders to work with these households to lower payments “to a number they can afford, for as long as they need to” by allowing longer remaining amortizations. The Department of Finance is encouraging lenders to begin working with these at-risk households two years before scheduled renewals. The unintended consequences of this could be significant. For example, what happens to the mortgage-backed securities market and other investors in mortgages? Also, this reduces competition by discouraging refinancings and could raise the cost of borrowing for all participants.

Ottawa has never been very good at considering the second-order effects of their actions. A case in point is the decision to markedly increase immigration (for lots of good reasons) without considering where all of these new people would live. This has led to a massive housing shortage and the least affordable housing in Canadian history. Now that Trudeau’s approval ratings have suffered, they are scrambling to remediate, but increasing demand for housing is obviously not the answer.

There will be more news on Tuesday when I dissect the federal budget’s housing initiatives. The more government money spent, the more money borrowed, which will only raise interest rates from what they will otherwise be.

Back to the March data, national home sales edged up a mere 0.5% month-over-month, although activity rose 1.7%. That was a much smaller gain than those recorded in the previous two months, although a part of that does reflect a mostly inactive market during the Easter long weekend.

New Listings

The number of newly listed homes declined by 1.6% month-over-month in March. “While the official March monthly numbers were quite flat, anecdotal evidence from late last month and early April suggests activity is ramping up,” said Larry Cerqua, Chair of CREA.

With sales edging up and new listings falling in March, the national sales-to-new listings ratio tightened to 57.4%. The long-term average is 55%. A sales-to-new listings ratio between 45% and 65% is generally consistent with balanced housing market conditions, with readings above and below this range indicating sellers’ and buyers’ markets, respectively.

At the end of March, there were 3.8 months of inventory nationwide, unchanged from the end of February. The long-term average is about five months of inventory.

New listings rose sharply in late March and early April–good news on all fronts.

The actual national average home price in March was up 2% year-over-year from a markedly depressed level. The MLS Home Price Index was roughly unchanged, down markedly from its early 2022 peak when the central bank’s overnight policy rate was a mere 25 basis points before they started hiking rates in March, two years ago.

Bottom Line

With pent-up demand for housing rising with every rent increase, the spring housing season is likely to be robust, even before the central bank cuts interest rates. We believe the BoC will begin reducing the policy rate in June or July, depending on the next two CPI reports. March inflation data will be released on Tuesday (a big day for economic news), and April data will come out on May 21st. The next Bank of Canada decision date is June 5th.

Dr. Sherry Cooper | Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres

BANK OF CANADA RATE DECISION: Rates Hold Steady for Sixth Consecutive Meeting

The Bank of Canada Cautious, but a Rate CUT in June is Possible

Today, the Bank of Canada held the overnight rate at 5% for the sixth consecutive meeting and pledged to continue normalizing its balance sheet. Governor Macklem confirmed that inflation is moving in the right direction, labour markets are easing, and wage pressures appear to be dissipating. In today’s release of the April Monetary Policy Report (MPR), the central bank forecasters lowered their 2024 inflation forecast to 2.6% from 2.8%. However, the Governing Council needs more evidence to be confident that the downtrend in inflation is sustainable.

In contrast, the US CPI data released today for March showed that underlying inflation topped forecasts for the third consecutive month, and the US jobs data also beat estimates. This is in direct contrast to the news of better-than-expected inflation in Canada and the easing of labour markets. The Canadian economy is far more interest-rate sensitive than the US because mortgage terms are far shorter. Over 60% of all outstanding mortgages are up for renewal in the next two to three years, adding to monthly mortgage payments. That process has already begun.

While the Canadian economy slowed at the end of last year, more recent data suggest a bounceback in the first quarter. The Bank revised up its forecast for GDP growth in the first half of 2024 but reduced its economic outlook for next year. The Bank expects inflation to hit its 2% inflation target in 2025.

Bottom Line

Governor Macklem’s prepared opening statement at today’s press conference was more dovish on inflation than in prior months. “We are seeing what we need to see, but we need to see it for longer to be confident that progress toward price stability will be sustained,” Macklem said in the prepared text. If things go according to today’s MPR forecasts, policymakers are likely to begin cutting the overnight rate in June.

Still, Macklem called further declines in core inflation “very recent,” adding that the bank wants to “be assured this is not just a temporary dip.”

“While inflation is still too high and risks remain, CPI and core inflation have eased further in recent months,” officials said in the policy statement.

The next decision date is June 5, when overnight swaps traders pared their bets to about a 50-50 chance of a 25 basis point cut at that meeting, down from over two-thirds before today’s data release. A July rate cut is fully priced in.

We will know more this coming Tuesday when the March CPI data (along with the federal budget) are released. April CPI will be posted on May 21. As the chart below shows, inflation data in Canada is rapidly approaching the 2% target, well ahead of the US, although set backs can’t be ruled out. For example, gasoline prices have risen since early February. However, the proportion of CPI sectors showing less than 1% gains is rising as those showing more than 3% increases are falling fast.