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Banking Regular Aims to Make it Tougher to Get an Uninsured Mortgage

Latest News Kim Stenberg 9 Apr

With several Big-Five bank CEOs calling for regulatory action to slow the red-hot housing market, it didn’t take long for the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI), the governor of federally regulated financial institutions, to respond. In a news release issued today, OSFI proposed an increase in uninsured mortgages’ qualifying rate to the higher of the mortgage contract rate […]

Housing Continued to Surge in February

Latest News Kim Stenberg 16 Mar

Today the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) released statistics showing national home sales hit another all-time high in February 2021. Canadian home sales increased a whopping 6.6% month-on-month (m-o-m), building on the largest winter housing boom in history. On a year-over-year (y-o-y) basis, existing home sales surged an amazing 39.2%. As the chart below shows, February’s activity blew […]

Easing Restrictions Ignite Canadian Job Market in February

Latest News Kim Stenberg 12 Mar

This morning, Statistics Canada released the February 2021 Labour Force Survey showing much stronger-than-expected job growth. The early days of the latest easing in COVID restrictions reinvigorated the labour market. Economists were pleasantly surprised by the rapid rebound. To be sure, there remain risks to the outlook, a rise in virus cases because of the […]

Bank of Canada HOLDS Policy Rate at 0.25% and Maintains QE Program at Current Pace

Latest News Kim Stenberg 10 Mar

Much has changed since the Bank of Canada’s last decision on January 20. While the second pandemic wave was raging, new lockdowns were implemented in late 2020, and there were fears that the economy, in consequence, was likely to grow at a 4.8% annual rate in Q4 and contract in Q1. Instead, the lockdowns were less […]

Strong Canadian Economic Growth in Q4 and January

General Kim Stenberg 2 Mar

This morning’s Stats Canada release showed that economic growth in the final quarter of last year was a surprisingly strong 9.6% (annualized). The surge in growth in January was even more interesting, estimated at a 0.5% (not annualized) pace. If these numbers pan out, it means that Canada did not suffer a contraction during the second […]

Canadian 5-Year Bond Yield Surges

Latest News Kim Stenberg 1 Mar

In an unprecedented move, bond yields are spiking around the world. Yields globally are now at levels last seen before the coronavirus spread worldwide. At the same time, commodity prices are surging, including energy, metals and minerals, agricultural products and lumber. The Biden administration’s $1.9 trillion stimulus package is has triggered fears that if the US […]

Longer-Term Yields are Rising Despite Central Bank Inaction

Latest News Kim Stenberg 23 Feb

While central banks hold overnight rates at record lows, anchoring short-term interest rates and the prime rate, mid-to-long-term government yields have been rising since early this month. As the chart below shows, the 5-year Government of Canada bond, upon which mortgage rates are generally tethered, are currently at 0.69%, up 27 basis points since January 29th. […]

Canadian Home Sales Hit All-Time Record High in January

Latest News Kim Stenberg 16 Feb

Housing Continued to Surge in January Today the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) released statistics showing national home sales hit another all-time high in January 2021. Canadian home sales increased 2.0% month-on-month (m-o-m) building on December’s 7.0% gain. On a year-over-year (y-o-y) basis, existing home sales surged 35.2%. As the chart below shows, January activity […]

Extended Lockdowns Batter Jobs Market

Latest News Kim Stenberg 11 Feb

This morning, Statistics Canada released the January 2021 Labour Force Survey showing the negative economic impact of extended lockdowns in Ontario and Quebec. The closing of all in-person dining, nonessential retail, recreational facilities and personal care services in these provinces and Alberta and Manitoba took its toll on the labour markets. Employment fell by 212,800 (-1.2%) […]

Bank of Canada Still Expects No Rate Increases Until 2023

Latest News Kim Stenberg 21 Jan

The Bank of Canada, this morning, released its January Monetary Policy Report (MPR), showing they expect to keep overnight interest rates at its “effective lower bound” of 0.25% until 2023 (see chart below). To reinforce this commitment and keep interest rates low across the yield curve, the Bank will continue its Quantitative Easing (QE) program–buying […]

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