8 Apr

March’s Weak Jobs Report Sets the Stage for a June Rate Cut

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Posted by: Kim Stenberg

The StatsCanada Labour Force Survey for March is much weaker than expected. Employment fell by 2,200, and the employment rate declined for the sixth consecutive month to 61.4%. Total hours worked in March were virtually unchanged but up 0.7% compared with 12 months earlier. The details were similar to the headline: as full-time jobs dipped, total hours worked fell 0.3%, and only two […]

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19 Mar

Canadian Home Sales Stop Falling in February as Prices Hold Steady

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Posted by: Kim Stenberg

February data bode well for a strong spring housing market The Canadian Real Estate Association announced today that national home sales dipped 3.1% m/m in February while home prices were flat, ending a five-month price decline that began last fall. It was noteworthy that prices remained unchanged from January to February, given that they dropped […]

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6 Mar

BANK OF CANADA ANNOUNCEMENT: Holds Rates Steady Waiting to See Further Declines in Core Inflation

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Posted by: Kim Stenberg

Today, the Bank of Canada held the overnight rate at 5% for the fifth consecutive meeting and pledged to continue normalizing the Bank’s balance sheet. Policymakers remain concerned about risks to the outlook for inflation. The latest data show that CPI inflation fell to 2.9% in January, but year-over-year and three-month measures of core inflation […]

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29 Feb

No Recession in Canada, as Q4 GDP Growth Rose 1%

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Posted by: Kim Stenberg

Still No Recession in Canada Thanks to Huge Influx of Immigrants Real gross domestic product (GDP) rose a moderate 1.0% (seasonally adjusted annual rate), a tad better than expected and the Q3 contraction of -1.2% was revised to -0.5%. This leaves growth for 2023 at a moderate 1.1%. Monthly data, also released today by Statistics […]

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20 Feb

Great News on the Inflation Front Cause Big Bond Rally

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Posted by: Kim Stenberg

Canadian Inflation Falls to 2.9% in January, Boosting Rate Cut Prospects The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.9% year-over-year in January, down sharply from December’s 3.4% reading. The most significant contributor to the deceleration was a 4% decline in y/y gasoline prices, compared to a 1.4% rise the month before (see chart below). Excluding gasoline, […]

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14 Feb

Canadian Home Sales Continued to Rise in January as Markets Tightened

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Posted by: Kim Stenberg

Canadian Home Sales Continued Their Upward Trend in January as Prices Fell Modestly The Canadian Real Estate Association announced today that home sales over the last two months show signs of recovery. National sales were up 3.7% between December 2023 and January 2024, building on the 7.9% gain in December. The chart below shows that […]

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